As USMCA's annual review cycle begins, the public conversation has stayed on tariffs, rules of origin, and energy. GEA identifies a risk no one else is addressing: what happens to a company's environmental liability in Mexico when it scales back or exits. The bond mechanism meant to cover it is outdated by design, and the classification system behind it hasn't been revised in over three decades.

In six months, Mexico's forestry authority raised environmental compensation costs for forest land-use change by up to 500%, then fully reversed the measure. While developers and regulators argued over price, nobody asked the question that matters: after 21 years of this mechanism, is there a single public record showing how many authorized hectares were actually restored?